2026 season · United States · NIFC SIT-209 as of July 21, 2026

So far, 2026 is running well above normal.

Acres burned through July 21, 2026: 4.0M — about 1.33× the 10-year average for the same calendar day. In a normal year roughly 58% of the season's acres are still ahead at this point on the calendar. Depending on whether the current pace holds (persistence) or the rest of the season reverts to a normal remainder (reversion), 2026 could finish anywhere from 8.0M to 9.4M. Solid bars are official NIFC year-end totals; the dashed line is the 10-year mean. Neither scenario is a physical forecast — they are bookends on what today's YTD number can imply.

Where 2026 stands right now

Year-to-date through July 21, 2026 vs. the 10-year average for the same calendar day.

Year-end range: two scenarios

Two bookends on where 2026 could land. Persistence = current YTD ÷ the share of a normal season that is already over by today: assumes the current pace holds all year. Reversion = current YTD + the share of a normal season still to come: assumes the remainder of the season behaves like a normal season's remainder. Neither is a physical forecast — the gap between them is the uncertainty a hot (or cold) start creates, and it narrows on its own as the season closes out.

Planning around wildfire smoke

Season totals only tell you the shape of the year. For deciding whether to hike, ride, run, or camp on a given day, the TrailSmoke live map shows the NOAA HRRR 48-hour smoke plume forecast over the entire U.S. alongside active wildfire perimeters from NIFC. Search any city or trailhead to see where smoke is now, where it is projected to drift next, and which fires are driving it — no account required.

Going state by state, every state forecast page carries its own fire count and average fire size. The season-pace write-up explains how these year-to-date numbers are put together, and the model notes cover what HRRR-Smoke can and cannot resolve.

Source: National Interagency Fire Center — Total Wildland Fires and Acres. Year-to-date fires and acres are read live from NIFC's SIT-209 year-to-date statistics feed — the same numbers published on the NIFC statistics page and in the daily Incident Management Situation Report — and refresh every time this page loads. Prior years are the official year-end totals published by NIFC / NICC. The 10-year same-day average is reconstructed from those year-end totals and a day-of-year seasonality curve built from the NIFC WFIGS 2019–2025 incident record; it tracks NIFC's own published same-day averages to within about 3%. The 2026 year-end number is a pace projection, not a physical forecast — actual season totals depend on weather, ignitions, and fuel conditions still to come.