Las Vegas wildfire smoke forecast
The map above shows NOAA HRRR-Smoke near-surface PM2.5 for the next 48 hours, updated hourly, with active fires from NIFC and live AQI from EPA AirNow monitors. It opens over Las Vegas.
Las Vegas sits at about 2,000 feet in a desert valley bounded by the Spring Mountains to the west, which rise to nearly 12,000 feet, and lower ranges to the east. Like Phoenix, it disperses well during the day because desert heating produces a deep mixed layer, and its smoke problems are usually a thin high layer rather than a dense surface one.
Where the smoke comes from
Most of what reaches Las Vegas is imported from California and Arizona at altitude, which tints the sky and reduces visibility over the valley without moving surface AQI much. The exception is a fire in the Spring Mountains, which sits close enough that smoke drains directly into the valley and surface readings climb sharply.
How long it lasts
Daytime mixing handles the imported layers within a day or two of the source easing. Spring Mountains smoke behaves differently and follows a drainage cycle, worst overnight and into early morning.
Past smoke events
The 2013 Carpenter 1 Fire burned nearly 28,000 acres in the Spring Mountains and produced the valley's clearest recent case of local smoke. The 2020 and 2021 California seasons both delivered extended periods of high-altitude haze.
Running, riding, and trailheads
Red Rock Canyon and Mount Charleston are the local escapes. Mount Charleston is inside the Spring Mountains, so during a fire there it is the affected place rather than the refuge, and checking the forecast at the trailhead rather than in the valley is the difference that matters.
Reading the map
Use the layer toggle to compare NOAA HRRR-Smoke with the ECCC FireWork model. When the two disagree, treat the higher reading as the cautious call.
Near-surface is the product that maps to what you breathe and to AQI, not the high-altitude column that only tints the sunset. A sky that looks bad and a monitor that reads fine are usually both correct, and they are describing different layers of air.